HOW WELL DOES “CORE” INFLATION CAPTURE PERMANENT PRICE CHANGES?

Does Wage Inflation Cause Price Inflation?

Inflation How Does Inflation Work?

The basic workings of inflationary models are summarized, along with the arguments that strongly suggest that our universe is the product of inflation. I describe the quantum origin of density perturbations, giving a heuristic derivation of the scale invariance of the spectrum and the leading corrections to scale invariance. The mechanisms that lead to eternal inflation in both new and chaotic ...

Does Lower Inflation Imply Lower Price Uncertainty?

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How Useful is Core Inflation for Forecasting Headline Inflation ?

The paper constructs various core inflation measures. These include various trimmed means using disaggregated data and a structural VAR estimate of core inflation for Ireland. The ability of these core inflation measures to forecast future headline inflation is compared using a regression model. An ARIMA model fitted to the headline inflation rate is used as the benchmark forecast. The forecast...

How well does sticky information explain the dynamics of inflation, output, and real wages?

This paper finds that a model with sticky information is less successful than a standard model featuring nominal rigidities, inflation indexation, and habits in generating the dynamics triggered by technology shocks, as estimated by a vector autoregression using U.S. macroeconomic data. The real wage responses after a permanent increase in productivity clearly favor the standard model. The stic...